palimmer, on , said:

Bowdoin Park - Boys Top Team Averages
16:02.4 - NXN-New York 2013 - Fayetteville-Manlius
16:10.0 - NXN-New York 2013 - Northport
16:14.5 - NY Federation 2014 - St. Anthony's
16:14.64- Bowdoin Classic 2012 - CBA NJ
16:15.0 - NXN-Northeast 2013 - CBA NJ
16:15.2 - NY Federation 2004 - Fayetteville-Manlius
16:21.5 - NXN-New York 2013 - Liverpool

As a side-note ... Boy Individuals - 28 of 50 fastest times ever run at Bowdoin Park have been run in 2012, 2013 or 2014 ... Just a comment (not evaluating anything).

PL,
CBA opened up the 2012 season with a 16:14.
Sounds like a great race by a great St. Anthony's team. Should be an awesome NXN NY Boys race next weekend!
Cheers,
CB

St. Anthonys ran the third fastest five man average ( 16:14 ) at the NY Fed meet demolishing the field....only FM (2012) was faster I believe....faster than any of those super CBA teams

St. Anthonys ran the third fastest five man average ( 16:14 ) at the NY Fed meet demolishing the field....only FM (2012) was faster I believe....faster than any of those super CBA teams

Doug Soles, on , said:

Out of curiosity -- because I, like watchout (but to a much lesser extent), try to rank local teams based on how they've performed across different courses and at different times -- how would you propose accounting for that? On the one hand, you can rely on the data and rank teams exactly how the crunched numbers suggest. On the other, you can attempt to adjust things based on hunches that a team didn't go all out. Wouldn't the latter be exactly what several are accusing watchout of, i.e., letting personal bias sneak into the rankings?

Dan

watchout, on , said:

Thanks Watchout,

It helps to see the breakdown. Like I said I think the issue is teams that are peaked for their state meet vs. teams that are cruising meets and training hard for their peak at a later time comparatively. Definitely hard to rank people from different parts of the country, who are focused on different types of races at different times. We will have our hands full just getting out of California so this may all be moot anyway. I appreciate your time.

Doug

I know enough about xc that no team runs it's best race of the season in September ... sure a team can dominate early season vs teams that build steam as the season progresses, so it looks like they've peaked too soon, but even those early peakers are still progressing, just not as much as the competition. Idk what the numbers are telling the people who do rankings. Maybe they over valued your early season races or are under valuing your recent races. Maybe you're training through recent meets. Maybe you're killing it in practices (which rankers can't rank lol). But Coach Soles, I'm sure you're going to do just fine finishing the season.

One thing Coach Soles did ask for which nobody gave an answer, who is his biggest competition?

Doug Soles, on , said:

Wouldn't I be "discounting the success that teams are having" if I DON'T reward teams for getting better during the season?

Yes, you guys beat Summit - by quite a bit - at NPN. That was 7 weeks ago, they have improved enough that they would at least (with Maton) give you a run for your money with how good you guys were back then; at the same time, you guys aren't running as well as you were back then, so why should I give you guys the benefit of doubt but not Summit?

These rankings are about how things look RIGHT NOW, based on how runners have run this year - most specifically, how well they've done in the last few weeks. If Summit has been running better than you guys over the last month, why shouldn't they sneak past you in the rankings - despite any team result from nearly 2 months ago?

EDIT: For a more complete explanation of Great Oak vs. Summit... here's a look at my ratings for Great Oak @ NPN and your last 2 major meets (Clovis & Mt. SAC) compared to Summit's last 2 meets (OR State and NXN-NW).

GO @ Pre-Nationals: 191.1-190.7-183.6-179.0-175.8

GO @ Mt SAC Invite: 192.6-188.4-179.1-178.9-168.1
GO @ Clovis Invite: 187.7-180.6-179.8-179.5-173.1

Summit @ OR State: 202.0-182.8-182.5-179.1-177.4
Summit @ Northwest: (DNS)-183.1-182.3-179.1-173.9 (ratings could be a couple points higher, but these look reasonable to me)


What that shows to me: Summit is, over the last 3 weeks, running just about as well as Great Oak did at their best race this year: the only big differences are at #1 (edge to Summit, though not huge scoring-wise) and #2 (edge to Great Oak, with a notable difference scoring wise), though Summit also has a slight edge at #5 (though not enough to make up for the deficit at #2 in elite fields like NXN). That implies to me that, if both teams ran just as well as their best team races to date, it would be a close race - Great Oak probably having the edge. But when you look at how the two teams have compared recently, it's another story: Great Oak hasn't quite run as well as they were previously, which means Summit has the edge.

So, what is more important: how well a team is running now/recently, or how well a team was running back in September? My rankings favor recent results over team scores from back in September, because I think it's MUCH more telling of how good a team is right now, and because I think ranking teams based on how good they are right now is more important than lining up with how things looked on a specific day 2 months ago.

cerutty fan, on , said:

Yes Spencer had a those issues and has been working back from them. He is looking good in workouts, and cruised prelims preparing to run fast at State and beyond. He will be fine when it matters. CIF Prelims is probably the biggest illusion race out there because some teams are just cruising and others are all out and so it skews things a bit. Unfortunately, Solomon Fountain badly twisted his ankle and had to end his season to focus on getting it healthy so he will not be back for xc until next year. Trust me, we are not over looking any team in the D1 SS ranks. Anyone can have a great day at any time.

Doug Soles, on , said:

Spencer Dodds went backwards dramatically at the Mt. SAC Invite (ran 15:30 after showing 14:55 equivalent fitness at Clovis) and has slid slightly further back each race since, running 15:36 at league finals (equal to about 15:56 at Mt. SAC) and then 16:08 on the Mt. SAC course for prelims yesterday. I know that is only league finals and prelims, but it makes you guys look pretty vulnerable. I had heard that twittergram said he had bronchitis AND got a concussion just before the Mt. SAC Invite, is that true? Is he OK? You obviously know more about his situation than I would, but unless he rebounds or has been tempoing races for some reason, it looks like he won't be in the top 2-3 when you run your full squad.

Mt. SAC and Clovis estimates
14:45 - 15:10 - Doan
15:00 - 15:28 - Cortes
15:15 - 15:44 - Spencer
15:30 - 15:59 - Arvizu
??:?? - ??:?? - Dodds
??:?? - ??:?? - Quintana, Fountain, Eipp, Ruiz, Combe, Tibbitts?

If Dodds comes back and runs what he did already at Clovis, 15:21, and the other guys run the times above you'll qualify for NXN and do well (whether that is top 5 or top 15, i really have no idea; don't know teams outside of SoCal). Without him, you might have a couple teams sneak by you at State and only be taking the girls to NXN unless one of the big young talents like Quintana or Fountain really mans up. Like you said, the next 3 weeks will be interesting indeed!

dkap, on , said:

Yeah, I agree... while I would be upset if I was the coach and much moreso if I was on the team, but as a coach I wouldn't hold it against the kid - post season meets like these are post season meets (as a teammate I might have a different opinion), and as far as the school is concerned the season ends at the state meet; anything past that is up to the team and the kids to do.

cerutty fan, on , said:

That attitude would make the coach extremely unpopular with the Athletic Director.

Dan

Bill Meylan, on , said:

It's called post-season, sure, but for any nationally ranked team it ought to be called The Season. Regular season is just to tune-up for the "post-season". It's when a team is supposed to really come together, not go it's separate ways. If watchout is right and Summit actually IS a top-5 team in the nation I would be livid if I were the coach of that team and he decided to go to Footlocker. He would be persona non grata at that point. Run track on your own without your team and see how that goes.

loverubber, on , said:

Their girls once again dominated the State meet with last year's #1 sidelined, and two years ago surprised many people to win with 1 or 2 girls held out for disciplinary reasons, so I suspect it's a [stepping up] scenario they're not uncomfortable with.

Dan

Bill Meylan, on , said:

I suspect this is true. I also agree with what palimmer said as well. I am hopeful if Maton does not run NXR that Summit is still able to advance.

watchout, on , said:

I would love to see Fisher run both Footlocker and NXN ... Fisher was dominant in both XC and track last year ... He looks great again this season, so any crowning of "The National Champion" would seem to go through Grant Fisher ... If Fisher only runs Footlocker and wins again, I believe the majority of the country will consider him "the best".

Perhaps an unpopular opinion amongst coaches ... This is post-season ... This is the time the individual can (and should) do what they desire and/or do what is best for them personally ... That's my own opinion .... In the case of Matt Maton, if he runs NXN Northwest and helps Summit qualify for NXN Nationals, then he did a great deal for his team ... Summit has a chance to qualify without Maton, but their chances are much better with him ... I doubt his teammates will be unhappy with Maton if he then decides to run Footlocker (assuming Summit qualified with Maton running NXN Northwest) ... I also wouldn't be surprised if Maton made it known to his team early in the season that he was planning to run Footlocker (no matter what ... just a guess).

palimmer, on , said:

I agree. Only four possibilities I can think of is that:
1. He had a bad experience at NXN last time (he fell down and was trampled, maybe even got a minor concussion, in the slop in '12)
2. He believes that FLN is not only more prestigious, but so much more prestigious that it isn't worth it to run with his team
3. He wants to race Fisher again, and believes Fisher is only going to run FLN (though Fisher is lucky enough that he CAN run both meets and actually be THE national champion if he was to do so and win both)
4. He wants to go on vacation in Southern California

I think (hope) it's mostly #3 - which would be moot if Fisher threw his hat in the ring and ran both meets like Verzbicas did - but, hey, it's not my decision to make. I felt the same way with the McGorty situation a couple years ago, but at least then he WANTED to run NXN (he was trying to qualify for both, and almost did). It's an unfortunate time when the talent is split between two meets, and even moreso in cases like this when an individual is putting themselves ahead of their teammates.

Maybe it's just me but I find it difficult to fathom why or how an athlete will abandon his team for personal glory. ..but it isn't even that as NXN presents an opportunity for personal glory
as well as team accomplishments....does he not think that his team mates have had something to do with his i ndividual successes?
PL

hayward102, on , said:

With Maton, they have a significant lead as NW#1 and are a US Top-5 team.
Without Maton, they are still in the mix for NW#1 but the gap is potentially very small with CC and NC (and possibly others) nipping at their heels.

The rankings will continue to include Maton, as he raced at the state meet, regardless of whether he is on their NXR squad. It's a shame if he really doesn't run with the rest of his team.

TheDarkKnight278, on , said:

These two interviews do not mention NXR in conjunction with Maton and both do state that he is planning to run footlocker which eliminates NXN. I think it's unfortunate if that is how it turns out, but it's obviously his decision to make.

http://oregon-cross-...video_id=126402

http://oregon-cross-...video_id=126387

Summit would obviously lose a front-runner but still has a solid pack behind him. Watchout, where do you think they would be without Maton? I know straight time comparisons aren't the best between races, but if you plug their times in to the 6A race they win even without Maton. I'm not saying that's how it would have played out, but it does show they would have been competitive in that field without him.